Virginia’s rushing yards with Peyton Lewis and since Peyton Lewis’ last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Virginia was 122.0 yards over with Peyton Lewis and 25.7 yards under since Peyton Lewis’ last game over its last 25 games, 1 game against 7. The plain averages are 249.5 and 116.9, a difference of 132.6. All 3 away games were since Peyton Lewis’ last game. Both ranked opponents were since Peyton Lewis’ last game. All 7 games on a normal week were since Peyton Lewis’ last game.
Peyton Lewis, running back: 17 rushing yards and 10 carries in 2 of those 25 games, 3% of Virginia’s rushing yards in those games.
2 games with Peyton Lewis is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
rushing yards a game over expected
A +132.6 difference in rushing yards with Peyton Lewis vs since Peyton Lewis’ last game is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Peyton Lewis and it comes up 5 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | rushing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs SMU | L | 65 | 117.8 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ Virginia Tech | L | 96 | 139.7 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs Coastal Carolina | W | 177 | 229.9 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ NC State | L | 257 | 128.4 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs William & Mary | W | 407 | — | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Stanford | W | 210 | 149.2 | |
| Sep 26, 2025 | vs Florida State | W | 211 | 168.0 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Louisville | W | 90 | 151.4 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Washington State | W | 125 | 147.8 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ North Carolina | W | 60 | 179.6 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @ California | W | 194 | 189.3 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vs Wake Forest | L | 163 | 153.6 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ Duke | W | 227 | 157.9 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsVirginia Tech | W | 199 | 169.9 | |
| Dec 6, 2025 | vsDuke (neutral) | L | 128 | 175.8 | |
| Dec 27, 2025 | vs Missouri (neutral) | W | 111 | 122.1 | |
| Aug 29, 2026 | vsNC State | W | 258 | 136.0 | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | vsNNorfolk State | W | 241 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs West Virginia (neutral) | L | 157 | 152.0 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Delaware | W | 119 | 172.9 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @Florida State | L | 38 | 180.1 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Syracuse | W | 171 | 128.1 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @SMU | L | 121 | 130.8 | |
| Oct 23, 2026 | vsDuke | L | 195 | 116.8 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @Wake Forest | L | 17 | 117.0 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 8.1 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 60% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Norfolk State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 8 of these 9 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.
- 16 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Peyton Lewis nor since Peyton Lewis’ last game: Peyton Lewis had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.