Virginia’s rushing yards with Jekail Middlebrook and since Jekail Middlebrook’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Virginia was 6.0 yards over with Jekail Middlebrook and 100.4 yards under since Jekail Middlebrook’s last game in 2026, 7 games against 1. The plain averages are 162.5 and 17.0, a difference of 145.5. All 5 home games were with Jekail Middlebrook. All 5 night games were with Jekail Middlebrook. All 7 unranked opponents were with Jekail Middlebrook.
Jekail Middlebrook, running back: 513 rushing yards, 105 carries and 12 receptions in 8 games this season, 39% of Virginia’s rushing yards in those games.
One game since Jekail Middlebrook’s last game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
rushing yards a game over expected
with Jekail Middlebrook
+6.0
since Jekail Middlebrook’s last game
−100.4
-1000100
plain
162.5
17.0
100200
The games
with Jekail Middlebrooksince Jekail Middlebrook’s last game
| Side | Date | Game | Result | rushing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 29, 2026 | vs NC State | W | 258 | 136.1 | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | vsNNorfolk State | W | 241 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs West Virginia (neutral) | L | 157 | 151.9 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Delaware | W | 119 | 172.7 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Florida State | L | 38 | 180.1 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Syracuse | W | 171 | 128.1 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ SMU | L | 121 | 131.0 | |
| Oct 23, 2026 | vs Duke | L | 195 | 116.8 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Wake Forest | L | 17 | 117.4 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 8.0 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 60% of the difference the model predicts.
- Norfolk State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 8 of these 9 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.