Virginia’s points of margin with Solomon Beebe and without Solomon Beebe
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Virginia was 7.2 points under with Solomon Beebe and 5.8 points over without Solomon Beebe over its last 25 games, 4 games against 4. The plain averages are -13.5 and 15.8, a difference of 29.3. Both ranked opponents were with Solomon Beebe. Both games while ranked were without Solomon Beebe. All 3 nonconference games were without Solomon Beebe.
Solomon Beebe, running back: 9 rushing yards, 4 carries and 5 receptions in 3 of those 25 games.
points of margin a game over expected
A −13.0 difference in points of margin over expected with Solomon Beebe vs without Solomon Beebe is about what you’d expect.
A −29.3 difference in points of margin with Solomon Beebe vs without Solomon Beebe is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Solomon Beebe and it comes up 18 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs SMU | L | -26 | -10.7 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ Virginia Tech | L | -20 | -12.3 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs Coastal Carolina | W | 41 | 26.7 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ NC State | L | -4 | 0.7 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs William & Mary | W | 39 | — | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Stanford | W | 28 | 13.7 | |
| Sep 26, 2025 | vs Florida State | W | 8 | 1.8 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Louisville | W | 3 | -3.3 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Washington State | W | 2 | 9.0 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ North Carolina | W | 1 | 16.8 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @ California | W | 10 | 10.3 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vs Wake Forest | L | -7 | 11.0 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ Duke | W | 17 | -1.4 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsVirginia Tech | W | 20 | 14.5 | |
| Dec 6, 2025 | vsDuke (neutral) | L | -7 | 5.1 | |
| Dec 27, 2025 | vs Missouri (neutral) | W | 6 | -2.5 | |
| Aug 29, 2026 | vsNC State | W | 26 | 0.5 | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | vsNNorfolk State | W | 56 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs West Virginia (neutral) | L | -11 | 0.4 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Delaware | W | 39 | 2.6 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @Florida State | L | -31 | -3.6 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Syracuse | W | 3 | 2.6 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @SMU | L | -10 | -7.6 | |
| Oct 23, 2026 | vsDuke | L | -3 | -5.8 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @Wake Forest | L | -44 | -14.4 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Norfolk State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 8 of these 9 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.
- 16 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Solomon Beebe nor without Solomon Beebe: Solomon Beebe had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.