Virginia’s carries with Peyton Lewis and since Peyton Lewis’ last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Virginia was 23.4 carries over with Peyton Lewis and 1.6 carries under since Peyton Lewis’ last game in 2026, 1 game against 7. The plain averages are 46.5 and 36.3, a difference of 10.2. All 3 away games were since Peyton Lewis’ last game. Both ranked opponents were since Peyton Lewis’ last game. All 7 games on a normal week were since Peyton Lewis’ last game.
Peyton Lewis, running back: 17 rushing yards and 10 carries in 2 games this season, 11% of Virginia’s carries in those games.
2 games with Peyton Lewis is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
A +10.2 difference in carries with Peyton Lewis vs since Peyton Lewis’ last game is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 29, 2026 | vs NC State | W | 57 | 33.6 | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | vsNNorfolk State | W | 36 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs West Virginia (neutral) | L | 37 | 39.1 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Delaware | W | 41 | 38.7 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Florida State | L | 39 | 38.1 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Syracuse | W | 34 | 36.5 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ SMU | L | 32 | 37.8 | |
| Oct 23, 2026 | vs Duke | L | 53 | 36.1 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Wake Forest | L | 18 | 38.9 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Norfolk State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 8 of these 9 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.