Virginia’s carries with Noah Vaughn and since Noah Vaughn’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Virginia was 4.7 carries over with Noah Vaughn and 21.0 carries under since Noah Vaughn’s last game in 2026, 7 games against 1. The plain averages are 41.1 and 18.0, a difference of 23.1. All 5 home games were with Noah Vaughn. All 5 night games were with Noah Vaughn. All 7 unranked opponents were with Noah Vaughn.
Noah Vaughn, running back: 141 rushing yards, 28 carries and 1 reception in 6 games this season, 11% of Virginia’s carries in those games.
One game since Noah Vaughn’s last game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
with Noah Vaughn
+4.7
since Noah Vaughn’s last game
−21.0
-20020
plain
41.1
18.0
20304050
The games
with Noah Vaughnsince Noah Vaughn’s last game
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 29, 2026 | vs NC State | W | 57 | 33.6 | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | vsNNorfolk State | W | 36 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs West Virginia (neutral) | L | 37 | 39.1 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Delaware | W | 41 | 38.6 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Florida State | L | 39 | 38.1 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Syracuse | W | 34 | 36.5 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ SMU | L | 32 | 37.9 | |
| Oct 23, 2026 | vs Duke | L | 53 | 36.0 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Wake Forest | L | 18 | 39.0 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
- Norfolk State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 8 of these 9 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.