Virginia’s carries with Jekail Middlebrook and since Jekail Middlebrook’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Virginia was 4.7 carries over with Jekail Middlebrook and 21.0 carries under since Jekail Middlebrook’s last game over its last 25 games, 7 games against 1. The plain averages are 41.1 and 18.0, a difference of 23.1. All 5 home games were with Jekail Middlebrook. All 5 night games were with Jekail Middlebrook. All 7 unranked opponents were with Jekail Middlebrook.
Jekail Middlebrook, running back: 513 rushing yards, 105 carries and 12 receptions in 8 of those 25 games, 32% of Virginia’s carries in those games.
One game since Jekail Middlebrook’s last game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
with Jekail Middlebrook
+4.7
since Jekail Middlebrook’s last game
−21.0
-20020
plain
41.1
18.0
20304050
The games
with Jekail Middlebrooksince Jekail Middlebrook’s last game
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs SMU | L | 39 | 35.3 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ Virginia Tech | L | 32 | 37.7 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs Coastal Carolina | W | 42 | 40.5 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ NC State | L | 32 | 33.7 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs William & Mary | W | 49 | — | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Stanford | W | 40 | 35.7 | |
| Sep 26, 2025 | vs Florida State | W | 48 | 40.1 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Louisville | W | 31 | 35.8 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Washington State | W | 29 | 34.3 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ North Carolina | W | 33 | 39.2 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @ California | W | 44 | 37.0 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vs Wake Forest | L | 30 | 39.1 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ Duke | W | 41 | 35.4 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsVirginia Tech | W | 46 | 36.3 | |
| Dec 6, 2025 | vsDuke (neutral) | L | 29 | 37.1 | |
| Dec 27, 2025 | vs Missouri (neutral) | W | 40 | 33.4 | |
| Aug 29, 2026 | vsNC State | W | 57 | 33.6 | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | vsNNorfolk State | W | 36 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs West Virginia (neutral) | L | 37 | 39.1 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Delaware | W | 41 | 38.6 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @Florida State | L | 39 | 38.1 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Syracuse | W | 34 | 36.5 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @SMU | L | 32 | 37.9 | |
| Oct 23, 2026 | vsDuke | L | 53 | 36.0 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @Wake Forest | L | 18 | 39.0 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
- Norfolk State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 8 of these 9 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.
- 16 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Jekail Middlebrook nor since Jekail Middlebrook’s last game: Jekail Middlebrook had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.