UTSA’s points at home and away
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, UTSA was 10.1 points over at home and 4.3 points under away in 2026, 3 games against 4. The plain averages are 43.3 and 23.8, a difference of 19.5.
points a game over expected
at home
+10.1
away
−4.3
-200
A +14.3 difference in points over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
43.3
23.8
2040
A +19.5 difference in points at home vs away is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 17 times in 100.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsUUT Rio Grande Valley | W | 45 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Texas State | W | 31 | 32.1 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Texas | L | 6 | 17.9 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Colorado State | W | 59 | 41.4 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Rice | W | 16 | 39.1 | |
| Oct 8, 2026 | vs South Florida | W | 31 | 25.8 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Navy | W | 38 | 30.6 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Tulane | W | 42 | 23.0 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.8 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 66% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- UT Rio Grande Valley has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.