UTEP’s third-down conversion rate with Tavorus Jones and without Tavorus Jones
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, UTEP was 13.0 percentage points under with Tavorus Jones and 1.1 percentage points over without Tavorus Jones over its last 25 games, 5 games against 1. The plain averages are 26.3% and 33.3%, a difference of 7.1%. All 4 home games were with Tavorus Jones. All 3 night games were with Tavorus Jones. Both ranked opponents were with Tavorus Jones.
Tavorus Jones, running back: 276 rushing yards, 66 carries and 10 receptions in 7 of those 25 games.
One game without Tavorus Jones is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Tavorus Jones
−13.0%
without Tavorus Jones
+1.1%
-20%-10%0%
plain
26.3%
33.3%
20%40%
The games
with Tavorus Joneswithout Tavorus Jones
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 2024 | @ Louisiana Tech | L | 7.1% | 36.3% | |
| Nov 2, 2024 | vs Middle Tennessee | L | 31.3% | 44.7% | |
| Nov 9, 2024 | vs Kennesaw State | W | 41.2% | 37.1% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Tennessee | L | 38.9% | 29.3% | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ New Mexico State | W | 38.5% | 38.5% | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | @ Utah State | L | 26.7% | 30.6% | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vsUUT Martin | W | 40.0% | — | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Texas | L | 26.7% | 25.4% | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Louisiana Monroe | L | 42.1% | 36.1% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vsLouisiana Tech | L | 35.3% | 32.2% | |
| Oct 8, 2025 | vs Liberty | L | 20.0% | 40.4% | |
| Oct 15, 2025 | vs Sam Houston (neutral) | W | 27.3% | 36.9% | |
| Oct 28, 2025 | @Kennesaw State | L | 12.5% | 33.3% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vs Jacksonville State | L | 15.4% | 34.7% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ Missouri State | L | 46.2% | 31.9% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vsNew Mexico State | L | 40.0% | 33.6% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @ Delaware | L | 31.3% | 34.9% | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | @ Oklahoma | L | 15.4% | 26.0% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Texas Southern | W | 50.0% | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Michigan | L | 16.7% | 33.1% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Oregon State | L | 25.0% | 35.9% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ New Mexico | L | 33.3% | 32.2% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Nevada | L | 7.1% | 32.4% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs San Jose State | L | 31.3% | 33.2% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @NNorth Dakota State | L | 38.5% | — |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- Texas Southern, North Dakota State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Tavorus Jones nor without Tavorus Jones: Tavorus Jones had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.