UTEP’s third-down conversion rate with Tavorus Jones and without Tavorus Jones
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, UTEP was 13.0 percentage points under with Tavorus Jones and 1.1 percentage points over without Tavorus Jones in 2026, 5 games against 1. The plain averages are 26.3% and 33.3%, a difference of 7.1%. All 4 home games were with Tavorus Jones. All 3 night games were with Tavorus Jones. Both ranked opponents were with Tavorus Jones.
Tavorus Jones, running back: 276 rushing yards, 66 carries and 10 receptions in 7 games this season.
One game without Tavorus Jones is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Tavorus Jones
−13.0%
without Tavorus Jones
+1.1%
-20%-10%0%
plain
26.3%
33.3%
20%40%
The games
with Tavorus Joneswithout Tavorus Jones
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 4, 2026 | @ Oklahoma | L | 15.4% | 26.0% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Texas Southern | W | 50.0% | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Michigan | L | 16.7% | 33.1% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Oregon State | L | 25.0% | 35.9% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ New Mexico | L | 33.3% | 32.2% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Nevada | L | 7.1% | 32.4% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs San Jose State | L | 31.3% | 33.2% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @NNorth Dakota State | L | 38.5% | — |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- Texas Southern, North Dakota State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.