UTEP’s third-down conversion rate with EJ Colson Jr. and without EJ Colson Jr.
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, UTEP was 9.2 percentage points under with EJ Colson Jr. and 13.6 percentage points under without EJ Colson Jr. in 2026, 4 games against 2. The plain averages are 29.8% and 19.2%, a difference of 10.6%. All 4 away games were with EJ Colson Jr.. Both ranked opponents were with EJ Colson Jr.. Both opponents outside the major colleges were with EJ Colson Jr..
EJ Colson Jr., quarterback: 687 passing yards, 99 pass attempts and 66 completions in 7 games this season.
2 games without EJ Colson Jr. is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A +4.4% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with EJ Colson Jr. vs without EJ Colson Jr. is about what you’d expect.
A +10.6% difference in third-down conversion rate with EJ Colson Jr. vs without EJ Colson Jr. is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 4, 2026 | @ Oklahoma | L | 15.4% | 25.9% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Texas Southern | W | 50.0% | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Michigan | L | 16.7% | 33.0% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Oregon State | L | 25.0% | 35.9% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ New Mexico | L | 33.3% | 32.2% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Nevada | L | 7.1% | 32.4% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs San Jose State | L | 31.3% | 33.1% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @NNorth Dakota State | L | 38.5% | — |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Texas Southern, North Dakota State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.