UTEP’s points of margin with Tavorus Jones and without Tavorus Jones
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, UTEP was 3.3 points under with Tavorus Jones and 25.4 points under without Tavorus Jones over its last 25 games, 5 games against 1. The plain averages are -17.9 and -54.0, a difference of 36.1. All 4 home games were with Tavorus Jones. All 3 night games were with Tavorus Jones. Both ranked opponents were with Tavorus Jones.
Tavorus Jones, running back: 276 rushing yards, 66 carries and 10 receptions in 7 of those 25 games.
One game without Tavorus Jones is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
with Tavorus Jones
−3.3
without Tavorus Jones
−25.4
-20-100
plain
-17.9
-54.0
-500
The games
with Tavorus Joneswithout Tavorus Jones
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 2024 | @ Louisiana Tech | L | -4 | -12.0 | |
| Nov 2, 2024 | vs Middle Tennessee | L | -7 | 8.3 | |
| Nov 9, 2024 | vs Kennesaw State | W | 8 | 4.7 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Tennessee | L | -56 | -38.7 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ New Mexico State | W | 7 | -0.5 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | @ Utah State | L | -12 | -21.8 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vsUUT Martin | W | 25 | — | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Texas | L | -17 | -39.8 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Louisiana Monroe | L | -6 | 8.7 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vsLouisiana Tech | L | -19 | -9.1 | |
| Oct 8, 2025 | vs Liberty | L | -11 | -4.1 | |
| Oct 15, 2025 | vs Sam Houston (neutral) | W | 18 | 3.8 | |
| Oct 28, 2025 | @Kennesaw State | L | -13 | -15.8 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vs Jacksonville State | L | -3 | -5.6 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ Missouri State | L | -14 | -8.6 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vsNew Mexico State | L | -3 | 0.8 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @ Delaware | L | -30 | -4.0 | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | @ Oklahoma | L | -51 | -34.2 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Texas Southern | W | 41 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Michigan | L | -35 | -30.9 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Oregon State | L | -26 | -29.8 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ New Mexico | L | -54 | -28.6 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Nevada | L | -17 | -17.3 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs San Jose State | L | -13 | -13.5 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @NNorth Dakota State | L | -24 | — |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% of the difference the model predicts.
- Texas Southern, North Dakota State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Tavorus Jones nor without Tavorus Jones: Tavorus Jones had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.