UTEP’s points of margin with EJ Colson Jr. and without EJ Colson Jr.
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, UTEP was 10.4 points under with EJ Colson Jr. and 0.2 points over without EJ Colson Jr. in 2026, 4 games against 2. The plain averages are -24.8 and -15.0, a difference of 9.8. Expected was 15.9 points lower with EJ Colson Jr. than without EJ Colson Jr.. All 4 away games were with EJ Colson Jr.. Both ranked opponents were with EJ Colson Jr.. Both opponents outside the major colleges were with EJ Colson Jr..
EJ Colson Jr., quarterback: 687 passing yards, 99 pass attempts and 66 completions in 7 games this season.
2 games without EJ Colson Jr. is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
A −10.6 difference in points of margin over expected with EJ Colson Jr. vs without EJ Colson Jr. is about what you’d expect.
A −9.8 difference in points of margin with EJ Colson Jr. vs without EJ Colson Jr. is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 4, 2026 | @ Oklahoma | L | -51 | -34.3 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Texas Southern | W | 41 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Michigan | L | -35 | -30.9 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Oregon State | L | -26 | -29.9 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ New Mexico | L | -54 | -29.2 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Nevada | L | -17 | -17.3 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs San Jose State | L | -13 | -13.1 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @NNorth Dakota State | L | -24 | — |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Texas Southern, North Dakota State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.