UTEP’s points allowed with EJ Colson Jr. and without EJ Colson Jr.
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, UTEP was 11.1 points over with EJ Colson Jr. and 6.2 points under without EJ Colson Jr. over its last 25 games, 4 games against 2. The plain averages are 39.7 and 27.0, a difference of 12.7. All 4 away games were with EJ Colson Jr.. Both ranked opponents were with EJ Colson Jr.. Both opponents outside the major colleges were with EJ Colson Jr..
EJ Colson Jr., quarterback: 687 passing yards, 99 pass attempts and 66 completions in 7 of those 25 games.
2 games without EJ Colson Jr. is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points allowed a game over expected
A +17.4 difference in points allowed over expected with EJ Colson Jr. vs without EJ Colson Jr. is about what you’d expect.
A +12.7 difference in points allowed with EJ Colson Jr. vs without EJ Colson Jr. is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points allowed | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 2024 | @ Louisiana Tech | L | 14 | 30.2 | |
| Nov 2, 2024 | vs Middle Tennessee | L | 20 | 25.5 | |
| Nov 9, 2024 | vs Kennesaw State | W | 35 | 22.0 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Tennessee | L | 56 | 43.5 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ New Mexico State | W | 35 | 29.2 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | @ Utah State | L | 28 | 39.6 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vsUUT Martin | W | 17 | — | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Texas | L | 27 | 44.2 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Louisiana Monroe | L | 31 | 20.8 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vsLouisiana Tech | L | 30 | 30.2 | |
| Oct 8, 2025 | vs Liberty | L | 19 | 30.9 | |
| Oct 15, 2025 | vs Sam Houston (neutral) | W | 17 | 25.4 | |
| Oct 28, 2025 | @Kennesaw State | L | 33 | 34.1 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vs Jacksonville State | L | 30 | 28.2 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ Missouri State | L | 38 | 29.7 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vsNew Mexico State | L | 34 | 23.6 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @ Delaware | L | 61 | 28.2 | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | @ Oklahoma | L | 51 | 37.6 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Texas Southern | W | 10 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Michigan | L | 52 | 33.7 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Oregon State | L | 33 | 46.0 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ New Mexico | L | 61 | 35.2 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Nevada | L | 30 | 34.9 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs San Jose State | L | 24 | 31.6 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @NNorth Dakota State | L | 31 | — |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 1.9 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 66% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Texas Southern, North Dakota State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with EJ Colson Jr. nor without EJ Colson Jr.: EJ Colson Jr. had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.