UTEP’s carries with Tavorus Jones and without Tavorus Jones
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, UTEP was 0.7 carries over with Tavorus Jones and 0.2 carries over without Tavorus Jones in 2026, 5 games against 1. The plain averages are 35.4 and 35.0, a difference of 0.4. Expected was 1.7 carries higher with Tavorus Jones than without Tavorus Jones. All 4 home games were with Tavorus Jones. All 3 night games were with Tavorus Jones. Both ranked opponents were with Tavorus Jones.
Tavorus Jones, running back: 276 rushing yards, 66 carries and 10 receptions in 7 games this season, 27% of UTEP’s carries in those games.
One game without Tavorus Jones is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
with Tavorus Jones
+0.7
without Tavorus Jones
+0.2
-10010
plain
35.4
35.0
304050
The games
with Tavorus Joneswithout Tavorus Jones
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 4, 2026 | @ Oklahoma | L | 38 | 32.5 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Texas Southern | W | 33 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Michigan | L | 32 | 36.0 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Oregon State | L | 41 | 35.9 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ New Mexico | L | 35 | 34.8 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Nevada | L | 25 | 39.8 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs San Jose State | L | 50 | 38.1 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @NNorth Dakota State | L | 29 | — |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
- Texas Southern, North Dakota State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.