Utah State’s third-down conversion rate with Grady Brosterhous and without Grady Brosterhous
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Utah State was 5.3 percentage points under with Grady Brosterhous and 20.9 percentage points over without Grady Brosterhous over its last 25 games, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 32.0% and 61.8%, a difference of 29.8%. All 4 away games were with Grady Brosterhous. Both night games were with Grady Brosterhous. All 3 ranked opponents were with Grady Brosterhous.
Grady Brosterhous, quarterback: 1,120 passing yards, 178 pass attempts and 99 completions in 7 of those 25 games.
2 games without Grady Brosterhous is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A −29.8% difference in third-down conversion rate with Grady Brosterhous vs without Grady Brosterhous is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Grady Brosterhous and it comes up 7 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2024 | @ Washington State | L | 35.7% | 39.1% | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | vs Hawaii | W | 35.7% | 43.1% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs San Diego State | W | 53.8% | 47.0% | |
| Nov 29, 2024 | @ Colorado State | L | 60.0% | 39.5% | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs UTEP | W | 16.7% | 34.3% | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Texas A&M | L | 14.3% | 26.3% | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Air Force | W | 44.4% | 43.2% | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs McNeese | W | 50.0% | — | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ Vanderbilt | L | 35.7% | 38.8% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @Hawaii | L | 16.7% | 38.9% | |
| Oct 17, 2025 | vs San Jose State | W | 31.3% | 36.0% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ New Mexico | L | 40.0% | 34.8% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vs Nevada | W | 50.0% | 36.5% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ UNLV | L | 52.9% | 29.4% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Fresno State | W | 50.0% | 33.6% | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | vs Boise State | L | 10.0% | 35.2% | |
| Dec 22, 2025 | vsWashington State (neutral) | L | 23.1% | 35.2% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Idaho State | L | 60.0% | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Washington | L | 46.2% | 31.5% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Utah | L | 28.6% | 35.2% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Troy | W | 36.4% | 41.2% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @Boise State | L | 30.8% | 35.7% | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | vsWashington State | W | 21.4% | 41.9% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Texas State | L | 28.6% | 38.3% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vsColorado State | W | 63.6% | 42.7% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Idaho State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Grady Brosterhous nor without Grady Brosterhous: Grady Brosterhous had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.