Utah State’s third-down conversion rate with Grady Brosterhous and without Grady Brosterhous
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Utah State was 5.3 percentage points under with Grady Brosterhous and 20.9 percentage points over without Grady Brosterhous in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 32.0% and 61.8%, a difference of 29.8%. All 4 away games were with Grady Brosterhous. Both night games were with Grady Brosterhous. All 3 ranked opponents were with Grady Brosterhous.
Grady Brosterhous, quarterback: 1,120 passing yards, 178 pass attempts and 99 completions in 7 games this season.
2 games without Grady Brosterhous is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A −29.8% difference in third-down conversion rate with Grady Brosterhous vs without Grady Brosterhous is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Grady Brosterhous and it comes up 7 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Idaho State | L | 60.0% | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Washington | L | 46.2% | 31.5% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Utah | L | 28.6% | 35.2% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Troy | W | 36.4% | 41.2% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Boise State | L | 30.8% | 35.7% | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | vs Washington State | W | 21.4% | 41.9% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Texas State | L | 28.6% | 38.3% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Colorado State | W | 63.6% | 42.7% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Idaho State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.