Utah State’s third-down conversion rate with Eli Wood and since Eli Wood’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Utah State was 5.3 percentage points under with Eli Wood and 20.9 percentage points over since Eli Wood’s last game over its last 25 games, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 36.0% and 63.6%, a difference of 27.7%. All 4 away games were with Eli Wood. Both night games were with Eli Wood. All 3 ranked opponents were with Eli Wood.
Eli Wood, receiver: 479 receiving yards, 37 receptions and 5 receiving touchdowns in 7 of those 25 games.
One game since Eli Wood’s last game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Eli Wood
−5.3%
since Eli Wood’s last game
+20.9%
-20%0%20%
plain
36.0%
63.6%
40%60%
The games
with Eli Woodsince Eli Wood’s last game
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2024 | @ Washington State | L | 35.7% | 39.1% | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | vs Hawaii | W | 35.7% | 43.1% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs San Diego State | W | 53.8% | 47.0% | |
| Nov 29, 2024 | @ Colorado State | L | 60.0% | 39.5% | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs UTEP | W | 16.7% | 34.3% | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Texas A&M | L | 14.3% | 26.3% | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Air Force | W | 44.4% | 43.2% | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs McNeese | W | 50.0% | — | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ Vanderbilt | L | 35.7% | 38.8% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @Hawaii | L | 16.7% | 38.9% | |
| Oct 17, 2025 | vs San Jose State | W | 31.3% | 36.0% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ New Mexico | L | 40.0% | 34.8% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vs Nevada | W | 50.0% | 36.5% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ UNLV | L | 52.9% | 29.4% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Fresno State | W | 50.0% | 33.6% | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | vs Boise State | L | 10.0% | 35.2% | |
| Dec 22, 2025 | vsWashington State (neutral) | L | 23.1% | 35.2% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Idaho State | L | 60.0% | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Washington | L | 46.2% | 31.5% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Utah | L | 28.6% | 35.2% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Troy | W | 36.4% | 41.2% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @Boise State | L | 30.8% | 35.7% | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | vsWashington State | W | 21.4% | 41.9% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Texas State | L | 28.6% | 38.3% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vsColorado State | W | 63.6% | 42.7% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- Idaho State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Eli Wood nor since Eli Wood’s last game: Eli Wood had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.