Utah State’s third-down conversion rate with Eli Wood and since Eli Wood’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Utah State was 5.3 percentage points under with Eli Wood and 20.9 percentage points over since Eli Wood’s last game in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 36.0% and 63.6%, a difference of 27.7%. All 4 away games were with Eli Wood. Both night games were with Eli Wood. All 3 ranked opponents were with Eli Wood.
Eli Wood, receiver: 479 receiving yards, 37 receptions and 5 receiving touchdowns in 7 games this season.
One game since Eli Wood’s last game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Eli Wood
−5.3%
since Eli Wood’s last game
+20.9%
-20%0%20%
plain
36.0%
63.6%
40%60%
The games
with Eli Woodsince Eli Wood’s last game
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Idaho State | L | 60.0% | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Washington | L | 46.2% | 31.5% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Utah | L | 28.6% | 35.2% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Troy | W | 36.4% | 41.2% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Boise State | L | 30.8% | 35.7% | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | vs Washington State | W | 21.4% | 41.9% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Texas State | L | 28.6% | 38.3% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Colorado State | W | 63.6% | 42.7% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- Idaho State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.