Putting Up Numbers· college football

Utah State’s pass attempts with Eli Wood and since Eli Wood’s last game

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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Utah State was 0.9 pass attempts under with Eli Wood and 1.4 pass attempts under since Eli Wood’s last game over its last 25 games, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 30.9 and 23.0, a difference of 7.9. All 4 away games were with Eli Wood. Both night games were with Eli Wood. All 3 ranked opponents were with Eli Wood.

Eli Wood, receiver: 479 receiving yards, 37 receptions and 5 receiving touchdowns in 7 of those 25 games.

One game since Eli Wood’s last game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.

pass attempts a game over expected

The games

with Eli Woodsince Eli Wood’s last game
Utah State’s games, last 25 games, each marked with Eli Wood or since Eli Wood’s last game
SideDateGameResultpass attemptsExpected
Nov 9, 2024@Washington StateL4537.0
Nov 16, 2024vsHawaiiW3236.7
Nov 23, 2024vsSan Diego StateW2237.4
Nov 29, 2024@Colorado StateL2939.4
Aug 30, 2025vsUTEPW2832.5
Sep 6, 2025@Texas A&ML3132.0
Sep 13, 2025vsAir ForceW2231.1
Sep 20, 2025vsMcNeeseW28—
Sep 27, 2025@VanderbiltL3836.0
Oct 11, 2025@HawaiiL3729.7
Oct 17, 2025vsSan Jose StateW3231.4
Oct 25, 2025@New MexicoL2333.5
Nov 8, 2025vsNevadaW3529.0
Nov 15, 2025@UNLVL3830.9
Nov 22, 2025@Fresno StateW3228.7
Nov 28, 2025vsBoise StateL3230.2
Dec 22, 2025vsWashington State (neutral)L2728.6
Sep 5, 2026vsIdaho StateL43—
Sep 12, 2026@WashingtonL2825.5
Sep 19, 2026@UtahL2932.6
Sep 26, 2026vsTroyW2827.1
Oct 3, 2026@Boise StateL2531.2
Oct 9, 2026vsWashington StateW2627.4
Oct 24, 2026@Texas StateL3734.9
Oct 31, 2026vsColorado StateW2324.4

Method

Read against .

  • Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 0.1 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
  • Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 60% of the difference the model predicts.
  • Idaho State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
  • Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
  • 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Eli Wood nor since Eli Wood’s last game: Eli Wood had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.