Utah State’s carries with Grady Brosterhous and without Grady Brosterhous
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Utah State was 2.2 carries under with Grady Brosterhous and 1.9 carries over without Grady Brosterhous over its last 25 games, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 29.7 and 41.5, a difference of 11.8. All 4 away games were with Grady Brosterhous. Both night games were with Grady Brosterhous. All 3 ranked opponents were with Grady Brosterhous.
Grady Brosterhous, quarterback: 1,120 passing yards, 178 pass attempts and 99 completions in 7 of those 25 games, 45% of Utah State’s carries in those games.
2 games without Grady Brosterhous is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
A −11.8 difference in carries with Grady Brosterhous vs without Grady Brosterhous is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Grady Brosterhous and it comes up 7 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2024 | @ Washington State | L | 27 | 34.8 | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | vs Hawaii | W | 42 | 34.9 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs San Diego State | W | 49 | 37.8 | |
| Nov 29, 2024 | @ Colorado State | L | 48 | 33.7 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs UTEP | W | 31 | 41.4 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Texas A&M | L | 35 | 30.2 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Air Force | W | 34 | 30.1 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs McNeese | W | 45 | — | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ Vanderbilt | L | 25 | 30.1 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @Hawaii | L | 29 | 34.0 | |
| Oct 17, 2025 | vs San Jose State | W | 38 | 36.9 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ New Mexico | L | 25 | 34.2 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vs Nevada | W | 38 | 35.0 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ UNLV | L | 36 | 33.3 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Fresno State | W | 45 | 32.4 | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | vs Boise State | L | 33 | 32.2 | |
| Dec 22, 2025 | vsWashington State (neutral) | L | 25 | 31.7 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Idaho State | L | 44 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Washington | L | 29 | 34.5 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Utah | L | 25 | 27.2 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Troy | W | 29 | 35.5 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @Boise State | L | 33 | 25.5 | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | vsWashington State | W | 30 | 36.1 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Texas State | L | 32 | 32.1 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vsColorado State | W | 39 | 37.1 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Idaho State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Grady Brosterhous nor without Grady Brosterhous: Grady Brosterhous had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.