UMass’ third-down conversion rate with William Watson III and without William Watson III
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, UMass was 0.2 percentage points under with William Watson III and 7.4 percentage points under without William Watson III over its last 25 games, 3 games against 2. The plain averages are 34.6% and 30.0%, a difference of 4.6%. All 3 night games were with William Watson III. All 3 opponents outside the major colleges were with William Watson III. All 4 nonconference games were with William Watson III.
William Watson III, quarterback: 1,025 passing yards, 138 pass attempts and 96 completions in 6 of those 25 games.
2 games without William Watson III is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A +7.2% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with William Watson III vs without William Watson III is about what you’d expect.
A +4.6% difference in third-down conversion rate with William Watson III vs without William Watson III is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26, 2024 | vsWWagner | W | 62.5% | — | |
| Nov 2, 2024 | @ Mississippi State | L | 52.9% | 38.7% | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | vs Liberty | L | 42.9% | 40.1% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Georgia | L | 27.3% | 31.9% | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs UConn | L | 28.6% | 34.3% | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs Temple | L | 27.3% | 32.8% | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vsBBryant | L | 46.7% | — | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Iowa | L | 0.0% | 27.5% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ Missouri | L | 25.0% | 26.6% | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vs Western Michigan | L | 33.3% | 30.0% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Kent State | L | 30.0% | 40.4% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Buffalo | L | 29.4% | 32.8% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Central Michigan | L | 23.5% | 39.2% | |
| Nov 4, 2025 | @ Akron | L | 16.7% | 34.5% | |
| Nov 12, 2025 | vs Northern Illinois | L | 40.0% | 39.2% | |
| Nov 18, 2025 | @ Ohio | L | 40.0% | 29.1% | |
| Nov 25, 2025 | vs Bowling Green | L | 46.2% | 31.7% | |
| Sep 3, 2026 | @ Rutgers | W | 36.4% | 36.7% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsSSacred Heart | W | 33.3% | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsSStonehill | W | 33.3% | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @SSacramento State | W | 30.0% | — | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Eastern Michigan | L | 60.0% | 35.0% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Miami (OH) | L | 26.7% | 40.9% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @Buffalo | L | 33.3% | 33.9% | |
| Oct 23, 2026 | @UConn | L | 14.3% | 39.6% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Sacred Heart, Stonehill, Sacramento State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with William Watson III nor without William Watson III: William Watson III had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.