UMass’ third-down conversion rate with T.Y. Harding and since T.Y. Harding’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, UMass was 3.5 percentage points over with T.Y. Harding and 12.9 percentage points under since T.Y. Harding’s last game in 2026, 3 games against 2. The plain averages are 36.6% and 23.8%, a difference of 12.8%. All 4 home games were with T.Y. Harding. All 3 opponents outside the major colleges were with T.Y. Harding. All 4 first-half games were with T.Y. Harding.
T.Y. Harding, receiver: 327 receiving yards, 28 receptions and 2 receiving touchdowns in 6 games this season.
2 games since T.Y. Harding’s last game is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A +16.4% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with T.Y. Harding vs since T.Y. Harding’s last game is about what you’d expect.
A +12.8% difference in third-down conversion rate with T.Y. Harding vs since T.Y. Harding’s last game is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 3, 2026 | @ Rutgers | W | 36.4% | 36.7% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsSSacred Heart | W | 33.3% | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsSStonehill | W | 33.3% | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @SSacramento State | W | 30.0% | — | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Eastern Michigan | L | 60.0% | 35.0% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Miami (OH) | L | 26.7% | 40.9% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Buffalo | L | 33.3% | 33.9% | |
| Oct 23, 2026 | @ UConn | L | 14.3% | 39.6% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Sacred Heart, Stonehill, Sacramento State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.