UMass’ third-down conversion rate with Logan Inagawa and without Logan Inagawa
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, UMass was 0.5 percentage points under with Logan Inagawa and 3.7 percentage points under without Logan Inagawa over its last 25 games, 1 game against 4. The plain averages are 33.3% and 33.4%, a difference of 0.1%. Expected was 4.1 percentage points lower with Logan Inagawa than without Logan Inagawa. All 4 home games were without Logan Inagawa. All 3 night games were without Logan Inagawa. All 3 opponents outside the major colleges were without Logan Inagawa.
Logan Inagawa, quarterback: 296 passing yards, 37 pass attempts and 24 completions in 5 of those 25 games.
One game with Logan Inagawa is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Logan Inagawa
−0.5%
without Logan Inagawa
−3.7%
-20%0%20%
plain
33.3%
33.4%
20%40%60%
The games
with Logan Inagawawithout Logan Inagawa
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26, 2024 | vsWWagner | W | 62.5% | — | |
| Nov 2, 2024 | @ Mississippi State | L | 52.9% | 38.7% | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | vs Liberty | L | 42.9% | 40.1% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Georgia | L | 27.3% | 31.9% | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs UConn | L | 28.6% | 34.3% | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs Temple | L | 27.3% | 32.8% | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vsBBryant | L | 46.7% | — | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Iowa | L | 0.0% | 27.5% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ Missouri | L | 25.0% | 26.6% | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vs Western Michigan | L | 33.3% | 30.0% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Kent State | L | 30.0% | 40.4% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Buffalo | L | 29.4% | 32.8% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Central Michigan | L | 23.5% | 39.2% | |
| Nov 4, 2025 | @ Akron | L | 16.7% | 34.5% | |
| Nov 12, 2025 | vs Northern Illinois | L | 40.0% | 39.2% | |
| Nov 18, 2025 | @ Ohio | L | 40.0% | 29.1% | |
| Nov 25, 2025 | vs Bowling Green | L | 46.2% | 31.7% | |
| Sep 3, 2026 | @ Rutgers | W | 36.4% | 36.7% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsSSacred Heart | W | 33.3% | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsSStonehill | W | 33.3% | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @SSacramento State | W | 30.0% | — | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Eastern Michigan | L | 60.0% | 35.0% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Miami (OH) | L | 26.7% | 40.9% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @Buffalo | L | 33.3% | 33.9% | |
| Oct 23, 2026 | @UConn | L | 14.3% | 39.6% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- Sacred Heart, Stonehill, Sacramento State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Logan Inagawa nor without Logan Inagawa: Logan Inagawa had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.