UMass’ third-down conversion rate with Logan Inagawa and without Logan Inagawa
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, UMass was 0.5 percentage points under with Logan Inagawa and 3.7 percentage points under without Logan Inagawa in 2026, 1 game against 4. The plain averages are 33.3% and 33.4%, a difference of 0.1%. Expected was 4.1 percentage points lower with Logan Inagawa than without Logan Inagawa. All 4 home games were without Logan Inagawa. All 3 night games were without Logan Inagawa. All 3 opponents outside the major colleges were without Logan Inagawa.
Logan Inagawa, quarterback: 296 passing yards, 37 pass attempts and 24 completions in 5 games this season.
One game with Logan Inagawa is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Logan Inagawa
−0.5%
without Logan Inagawa
−3.7%
-20%0%20%
plain
33.3%
33.4%
20%40%60%
The games
with Logan Inagawawithout Logan Inagawa
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 3, 2026 | @ Rutgers | W | 36.4% | 36.7% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsSSacred Heart | W | 33.3% | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsSStonehill | W | 33.3% | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @SSacramento State | W | 30.0% | — | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Eastern Michigan | L | 60.0% | 35.0% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Miami (OH) | L | 26.7% | 40.9% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Buffalo | L | 33.3% | 33.9% | |
| Oct 23, 2026 | @ UConn | L | 14.3% | 39.6% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- Sacred Heart, Stonehill, Sacramento State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.