UMass’ points of margin with Logan Inagawa and without Logan Inagawa
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, UMass was 1.2 points over with Logan Inagawa and 2.1 points under without Logan Inagawa over its last 25 games, 1 game against 4. The plain averages are -7.0 and 7.1, a difference of 14.1. All 4 home games were without Logan Inagawa. All 3 night games were without Logan Inagawa. All 3 opponents outside the major colleges were without Logan Inagawa.
Logan Inagawa, quarterback: 296 passing yards, 37 pass attempts and 24 completions in 5 of those 25 games.
One game with Logan Inagawa is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
with Logan Inagawa
+1.2
without Logan Inagawa
−2.1
-20020
plain
-7.0
7.1
-20020
The games
with Logan Inagawawithout Logan Inagawa
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26, 2024 | vsWWagner | W | 28 | — | |
| Nov 2, 2024 | @ Mississippi State | L | -25 | -17.6 | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | vs Liberty | L | -1 | -5.3 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Georgia | L | -38 | -39.5 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs UConn | L | -5 | -13.3 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs Temple | L | -32 | -21.2 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vsBBryant | L | -1 | — | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Iowa | L | -40 | -58.3 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ Missouri | L | -36 | -49.5 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vs Western Michigan | L | -18 | -30.8 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Kent State | L | -36 | -14.5 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Buffalo | L | -7 | -16.8 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Central Michigan | L | -25 | -24.6 | |
| Nov 4, 2025 | @ Akron | L | -34 | -12.0 | |
| Nov 12, 2025 | vs Northern Illinois | L | -42 | -10.9 | |
| Nov 18, 2025 | @ Ohio | L | -28 | -33.7 | |
| Nov 25, 2025 | vs Bowling Green | L | -31 | -12.8 | |
| Sep 3, 2026 | @ Rutgers | W | 16 | -20.6 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsSSacred Heart | W | 27 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsSStonehill | W | 22 | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @SSacramento State | W | 29 | — | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Eastern Michigan | L | -24 | 12.0 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Miami (OH) | L | -1 | 0.1 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @Buffalo | L | -7 | -8.2 | |
| Oct 23, 2026 | @UConn | L | -19 | -11.0 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% of the difference the model predicts.
- Sacred Heart, Stonehill, Sacramento State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Logan Inagawa nor without Logan Inagawa: Logan Inagawa had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.