UMass’ points of margin with Logan Inagawa and without Logan Inagawa
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, UMass was 1.2 points over with Logan Inagawa and 2.1 points under without Logan Inagawa in 2026, 1 game against 4. The plain averages are -7.0 and 7.1, a difference of 14.1. All 4 home games were without Logan Inagawa. All 3 night games were without Logan Inagawa. All 3 opponents outside the major colleges were without Logan Inagawa.
Logan Inagawa, quarterback: 296 passing yards, 37 pass attempts and 24 completions in 5 games this season.
One game with Logan Inagawa is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
with Logan Inagawa
+1.2
without Logan Inagawa
−2.1
-20020
plain
-7.0
7.1
-20020
The games
with Logan Inagawawithout Logan Inagawa
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 3, 2026 | @ Rutgers | W | 16 | -20.6 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsSSacred Heart | W | 27 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsSStonehill | W | 22 | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @SSacramento State | W | 29 | — | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Eastern Michigan | L | -24 | 12.0 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Miami (OH) | L | -1 | 0.1 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Buffalo | L | -7 | -8.2 | |
| Oct 23, 2026 | @ UConn | L | -19 | -11.0 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% of the difference the model predicts.
- Sacred Heart, Stonehill, Sacramento State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.