UMass’ points of margin with Elijah Faulkner and since Elijah Faulkner’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, UMass was 2.9 points under with Elijah Faulkner and 3.9 points under since Elijah Faulkner’s last game over its last 25 games, 16 games against 1. The plain averages are -14.4 and 1.0, a difference of 15.4. Expected was 24.7 points lower with Elijah Faulkner than since Elijah Faulkner’s last game. All 10 away games were with Elijah Faulkner. All 5 night games were with Elijah Faulkner. All 4 opponents outside the major colleges were with Elijah Faulkner.
Elijah Faulkner, running back: 490 rushing yards, 129 carries and 9 receptions in 18 of those 25 games.
One game since Elijah Faulkner’s last game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
with Elijah Faulkner
−2.9
since Elijah Faulkner’s last game
−3.9
-20020
plain
-14.4
1.0
-40-20020
The games
with Elijah Faulknersince Elijah Faulkner’s last game
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2024 | @ Mississippi State | L | -25 | -17.6 | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | vs Liberty | L | -1 | -5.3 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Georgia | L | -38 | -39.5 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs UConn | L | -5 | -13.3 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs Temple | L | -32 | -21.2 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vsBBryant | L | -1 | — | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Iowa | L | -40 | -58.3 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ Missouri | L | -36 | -49.5 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vs Western Michigan | L | -18 | -30.8 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Kent State | L | -36 | -14.5 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Buffalo | L | -7 | -16.8 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Central Michigan | L | -25 | -24.6 | |
| Nov 4, 2025 | @ Akron | L | -34 | -12.0 | |
| Nov 12, 2025 | vs Northern Illinois | L | -42 | -10.9 | |
| Nov 18, 2025 | @ Ohio | L | -28 | -33.7 | |
| Nov 25, 2025 | vs Bowling Green | L | -31 | -12.8 | |
| Sep 3, 2026 | @ Rutgers | W | 16 | -20.6 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsSSacred Heart | W | 27 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsSStonehill | W | 22 | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @SSacramento State | W | 29 | — | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Eastern Michigan | L | -24 | 12.1 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Miami (OH) | L | -1 | -1.2 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @Buffalo | L | -7 | -10.2 | |
| Oct 23, 2026 | @UConn | L | -19 | -12.5 | |
| Nov 4, 2026 | vs Ball State | W | 1 | 4.9 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.1 in 2025, plus 3.7 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 87% in 2025, 79% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- Bryant, Sacred Heart, Stonehill, Sacramento State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 20 of these 21 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.
- 4 games in 2024 are neither with Elijah Faulkner nor since Elijah Faulkner’s last game: Elijah Faulkner had no game for the team that season, and sit out.