UMass’ points of margin with Elijah Faulkner and since Elijah Faulkner’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, UMass was 0.5 points under with Elijah Faulkner and 3.9 points under since Elijah Faulkner’s last game in 2026, 5 games against 1. The plain averages are 5.4 and 1.0, a difference of 4.4. Expected was 11.3 points lower with Elijah Faulkner than since Elijah Faulkner’s last game. All 4 away games were with Elijah Faulkner. All 3 night games were with Elijah Faulkner. All 3 opponents outside the major colleges were with Elijah Faulkner.
Elijah Faulkner, running back: 376 rushing yards, 89 carries and 8 receptions in 8 games this season.
One game since Elijah Faulkner’s last game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
with Elijah Faulkner
−0.5
since Elijah Faulkner’s last game
−3.9
-20020
plain
5.4
1.0
-20020
The games
with Elijah Faulknersince Elijah Faulkner’s last game
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 3, 2026 | @ Rutgers | W | 16 | -20.6 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsSSacred Heart | W | 27 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsSStonehill | W | 22 | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @SSacramento State | W | 29 | — | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Eastern Michigan | L | -24 | 12.1 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Miami (OH) | L | -1 | -1.2 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Buffalo | L | -7 | -10.2 | |
| Oct 23, 2026 | @ UConn | L | -19 | -12.5 | |
| Nov 4, 2026 | vs Ball State | W | 1 | 4.9 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% of the difference the model predicts.
- Sacred Heart, Stonehill, Sacramento State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 8 of these 9 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.