UMass’ points of margin with Curtis Kimmons IV and since Curtis Kimmons IV’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, UMass was 0.5 points under with Curtis Kimmons IV and 3.9 points under since Curtis Kimmons IV’s last game in 2026, 5 games against 1. The plain averages are 5.4 and 1.0, a difference of 4.4. Expected was 11.3 points lower with Curtis Kimmons IV than since Curtis Kimmons IV’s last game. All 4 away games were with Curtis Kimmons IV. All 3 night games were with Curtis Kimmons IV. All 3 opponents outside the major colleges were with Curtis Kimmons IV.
Curtis Kimmons IV, running back: 308 rushing yards, 55 carries and 9 receptions in 8 games this season.
One game since Curtis Kimmons IV’s last game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
with Curtis Kimmons IV
−0.5
since Curtis Kimmons IV’s last game
−3.9
-20020
plain
5.4
1.0
-20020
The games
with Curtis Kimmons IVsince Curtis Kimmons IV’s last game
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 3, 2026 | @ Rutgers | W | 16 | -20.6 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsSSacred Heart | W | 27 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsSStonehill | W | 22 | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @SSacramento State | W | 29 | — | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Eastern Michigan | L | -24 | 12.1 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Miami (OH) | L | -1 | -1.2 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Buffalo | L | -7 | -10.2 | |
| Oct 23, 2026 | @ UConn | L | -19 | -12.5 | |
| Nov 4, 2026 | vs Ball State | W | 1 | 4.9 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% of the difference the model predicts.
- Sacred Heart, Stonehill, Sacramento State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 8 of these 9 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.