UMass’ points allowed with William Watson III and without William Watson III
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, UMass was 2.7 points over with William Watson III and 1.6 points under without William Watson III over its last 25 games, 3 games against 3. The plain averages are 20.7 and 25.0, a difference of 4.3. All 3 night games were with William Watson III. All 3 opponents outside the major colleges were with William Watson III. All 4 nonconference games were with William Watson III.
William Watson III, quarterback: 1,025 passing yards, 138 pass attempts and 96 completions in 6 of those 25 games.
3 games without William Watson III is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points allowed a game over expected
A +4.3 difference in points allowed over expected with William Watson III vs without William Watson III is about what you’d expect.
A −4.3 difference in points allowed with William Watson III vs without William Watson III is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with William Watson III and it comes up 20 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points allowed | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2024 | @ Mississippi State | L | 45 | 40.3 | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | vs Liberty | L | 35 | 29.7 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Georgia | L | 59 | 45.5 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs UConn | L | 47 | 31.7 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs Temple | L | 42 | 38.3 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vsBBryant | L | 27 | — | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Iowa | L | 47 | 49.1 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ Missouri | L | 42 | 46.4 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vs Western Michigan | L | 21 | 37.3 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Kent State | L | 42 | 37.5 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Buffalo | L | 28 | 32.4 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Central Michigan | L | 38 | 34.8 | |
| Nov 4, 2025 | @ Akron | L | 44 | 31.6 | |
| Nov 12, 2025 | vs Northern Illinois | L | 45 | 27.7 | |
| Nov 18, 2025 | @ Ohio | L | 42 | 39.6 | |
| Nov 25, 2025 | vs Bowling Green | L | 45 | 28.8 | |
| Sep 3, 2026 | @ Rutgers | W | 21 | 36.0 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsSSacred Heart | W | 10 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsSStonehill | W | 14 | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @SSacramento State | W | 6 | — | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Eastern Michigan | L | 38 | 18.2 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Miami (OH) | L | 20 | 27.0 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @Buffalo | L | 25 | 29.4 | |
| Oct 23, 2026 | @UConn | L | 35 | 31.6 | |
| Nov 4, 2026 | vs Ball State | W | 30 | 23.3 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 1.8 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 66% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Sacred Heart, Stonehill, Sacramento State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 8 of these 9 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 16 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with William Watson III nor without William Watson III: William Watson III had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.