UMass’ carries with William Watson III and without William Watson III
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, UMass was 6.0 carries under with William Watson III and 6.6 carries over without William Watson III in 2026, 3 games against 2. The plain averages are 30.7 and 38.5, a difference of 7.8. All 3 night games were with William Watson III. All 3 opponents outside the major colleges were with William Watson III. All 4 nonconference games were with William Watson III.
William Watson III, quarterback: 1,025 passing yards, 138 pass attempts and 96 completions in 6 games this season, 20% of UMass’s carries in those games.
2 games without William Watson III is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
A −12.6 difference in carries over expected with William Watson III vs without William Watson III is about what you’d expect.
A −7.8 difference in carries with William Watson III vs without William Watson III is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 3, 2026 | @ Rutgers | W | 39 | 31.7 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsSSacred Heart | W | 26 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsSStonehill | W | 35 | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @SSacramento State | W | 37 | — | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Eastern Michigan | L | 25 | 35.6 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Miami (OH) | L | 30 | 29.3 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Buffalo | L | 47 | 34.4 | |
| Oct 23, 2026 | @ UConn | L | 22 | 36.7 | |
| Nov 4, 2026 | vs Ball State | W | — | — |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Sacred Heart, Stonehill, Sacramento State, Ball State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 8 of these 9 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.