UMass’ carries with T.Y. Harding and since T.Y. Harding’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, UMass was 1.1 carries under with T.Y. Harding and 0.6 carries under since T.Y. Harding’s last game in 2026, 3 games against 2. The plain averages are 32.0 and 34.5, a difference of 2.5. Expected was 2.6 carries lower with T.Y. Harding than since T.Y. Harding’s last game. All 4 home games were with T.Y. Harding. All 3 opponents outside the major colleges were with T.Y. Harding. All 4 first-half games were with T.Y. Harding.
T.Y. Harding, receiver: 327 receiving yards, 28 receptions and 2 receiving touchdowns in 6 games this season, 2% of UMass’s carries in those games.
2 games since T.Y. Harding’s last game is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
A −0.5 difference in carries over expected with T.Y. Harding vs since T.Y. Harding’s last game is about what you’d expect.
A −2.5 difference in carries with T.Y. Harding vs since T.Y. Harding’s last game is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 3, 2026 | @ Rutgers | W | 39 | 32.1 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsSSacred Heart | W | 26 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsSStonehill | W | 35 | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @SSacramento State | W | 37 | — | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Eastern Michigan | L | 25 | 35.8 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Miami (OH) | L | 30 | 29.5 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Buffalo | L | 47 | 32.8 | |
| Oct 23, 2026 | @ UConn | L | 22 | 37.4 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Sacred Heart, Stonehill, Sacramento State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.