UConn’s third-down conversion rate with Kenji Christian and without Kenji Christian
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, UConn was 1.3 percentage points over with Kenji Christian and 11.2 percentage points under without Kenji Christian over its last 25 games, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 41.8% and 27.3%, a difference of 14.5%. All 4 away games were with Kenji Christian. Both night games were with Kenji Christian.
Kenji Christian, running back: 306 rushing yards, 55 carries and 12 receptions in 7 of those 25 games.
One game without Kenji Christian is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Kenji Christian
+1.3%
without Kenji Christian
−11.2%
-10%0%10%20%
plain
41.8%
27.3%
30%40%50%
The games
with Kenji Christianwithout Kenji Christian
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2024 | @ UAB | W | 46.7% | 39.2% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Syracuse | L | 33.3% | 36.6% | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ UMass | W | 53.8% | 41.4% | |
| Dec 28, 2024 | vs North Carolina (neutral) | W | 50.0% | 35.9% | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vsCCentral Connecticut | W | 75.0% | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @Syracuse | L | 29.4% | 35.7% | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Delaware | L | 38.5% | 39.4% | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Ball State | W | 33.3% | 42.3% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ Buffalo | W | 38.5% | 36.3% | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vs Florida International | W | 46.2% | 37.5% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ Boston College | W | 40.0% | 37.2% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Rice | L | 29.4% | 38.0% | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vsUAB | W | 66.7% | 37.6% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vs Duke | W | 25.0% | 39.6% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs Air Force | W | 60.0% | 41.1% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Florida Atlantic | W | 46.2% | 39.6% | |
| Dec 27, 2025 | vs Army (neutral) | L | 11.1% | 41.7% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Lafayette | W | 50.0% | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Maryland | L | 27.3% | 37.7% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Southern Miss | W | 57.1% | 35.1% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Miami (OH) | L | 42.9% | 39.6% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vsSyracuse | L | 27.3% | 38.5% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Temple | W | 41.7% | 44.8% | |
| Oct 23, 2026 | vsUMass | W | 33.3% | 41.4% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @Air Force | L | 40.0% | 35.7% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- Lafayette has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Kenji Christian nor without Kenji Christian: Kenji Christian had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.