UConn’s carries with Kenji Christian and without Kenji Christian
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, UConn was 0.1 carries under with Kenji Christian and 0.7 carries over without Kenji Christian in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 36.1 and 33.0, a difference of 3.1. Expected was 3.3 carries higher with Kenji Christian than without Kenji Christian. All 4 away games were with Kenji Christian. Both night games were with Kenji Christian. All 4 first-half games were with Kenji Christian.
Kenji Christian, running back: 306 rushing yards, 55 carries and 12 receptions in 7 games this season, 22% of UConn’s carries in those games.
One game without Kenji Christian is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
with Kenji Christian
−0.1
without Kenji Christian
+0.7
-505
plain
36.1
33.0
3040
The games
with Kenji Christianwithout Kenji Christian
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Lafayette | W | 40 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Maryland | L | 31 | 38.6 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Southern Miss | W | 46 | 43.2 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Miami (OH) | L | 30 | 30.0 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Syracuse | L | 33 | 32.3 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Temple | W | 39 | 35.6 | |
| Oct 23, 2026 | vs UMass | W | 46 | 36.7 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Air Force | L | 21 | 29.6 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
- Lafayette has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.