UCF’s third-down conversion rate with Keyone Jenkins and without Keyone Jenkins
, ,
Against what the season’s ratings expected, UCF was 3.7 percentage points under with Keyone Jenkins and 6.0 percentage points under without Keyone Jenkins over its last 25 games, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 32.8% and 46.6%, a difference of 13.8%. All 3 ranked opponents were with Keyone Jenkins. All 5 conference games were with Keyone Jenkins.
Keyone Jenkins, quarterback: 1,181 passing yards, 180 pass attempts and 122 completions in 8 of those 25 games.
2 games without Keyone Jenkins is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Keyone Jenkins
−3.7%
without Keyone Jenkins
−6.0%
-20%0%20%
plain
32.8%
46.6%
20%40%60%
A −13.8% difference in third-down conversion rate with Keyone Jenkins vs without Keyone Jenkins is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Keyone Jenkinswithout Keyone Jenkins
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26, 2024 | vs BYU | L | 20.0% | 44.1% | |
| Nov 2, 2024 | vs Arizona | W | 66.7% | 39.1% | |
| Nov 9, 2024 | @ Arizona State | L | 46.2% | 41.2% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ West Virginia | L | 33.3% | 45.0% | |
| Nov 29, 2024 | vs Utah | L | 33.3% | 34.1% | |
| Aug 28, 2025 | vs Jacksonville State | W | 46.7% | 36.1% | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vsNNorth Carolina A&T | W | 45.5% | — | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs North Carolina | W | 38.5% | 37.8% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ Kansas State | L | 23.1% | 34.6% | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vs Kansas | L | 25.0% | 39.3% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Cincinnati | L | 38.9% | 36.5% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vsWest Virginia | W | 31.3% | 35.0% | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @ Baylor | L | 9.1% | 39.7% | |
| Nov 7, 2025 | vs Houston | L | 33.3% | 36.1% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ Texas Tech | L | 30.8% | 28.8% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Oklahoma State | W | 35.7% | 38.2% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @BYU | L | 46.2% | 28.1% | |
| Sep 3, 2026 | vsBBethune-Cookman | W | 62.5% | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Pittsburgh | L | 30.8% | 36.8% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Georgia State | W | 25.0% | 36.1% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs TCU | W | 30.0% | 34.9% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @Houston | L | 28.6% | 38.1% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @Oklahoma State | L | 43.8% | 36.6% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vsBYU | W | 56.3% | 34.9% | |
| Oct 30, 2026 | vsBaylor | L | 13.3% | 38.4% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Bethune-Cookman has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 6 of these 8 games; in the other 2 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Keyone Jenkins nor without Keyone Jenkins: Keyone Jenkins had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.