UCF’s third-down conversion rate with Keyone Jenkins and without Keyone Jenkins
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, UCF was 3.7 percentage points under with Keyone Jenkins and 6.0 percentage points under without Keyone Jenkins in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 32.8% and 46.6%, a difference of 13.8%. All 3 ranked opponents were with Keyone Jenkins. All 5 conference games were with Keyone Jenkins. All 4 second-half games were with Keyone Jenkins.
Keyone Jenkins, quarterback: 1,181 passing yards, 180 pass attempts and 122 completions in 8 games this season.
2 games without Keyone Jenkins is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A −13.8% difference in third-down conversion rate with Keyone Jenkins vs without Keyone Jenkins is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 3, 2026 | vsBBethune-Cookman | W | 62.5% | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Pittsburgh | L | 30.8% | 36.7% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Georgia State | W | 25.0% | 36.1% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs TCU | W | 30.0% | 34.9% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Houston | L | 28.6% | 38.1% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Oklahoma State | L | 43.8% | 36.5% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs BYU | W | 56.3% | 34.9% | |
| Oct 30, 2026 | vs Baylor | L | 13.3% | 38.4% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Bethune-Cookman has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 6 of these 8 games; in the other 2 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.