UCF’s third-down conversion rate with Duane Thomas Jr. and without Duane Thomas Jr.
, ,
Against what the season’s ratings expected, UCF was 2.7 percentage points under with Duane Thomas Jr. and 4.8 percentage points under without Duane Thomas Jr. over its last 25 games, 13 games against 5. The plain averages are 33.8% and 36.8%, a difference of 2.9%. Both top-10 opponents were with Duane Thomas Jr.. All 3 games after a bye were with Duane Thomas Jr..
Duane Thomas Jr., receiver: 572 receiving yards and 60 receptions in 14 of those 25 games.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Duane Thomas Jr.
−2.7%
without Duane Thomas Jr.
−4.8%
-20%0%20%
A +2.1% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Duane Thomas Jr. vs without Duane Thomas Jr. is about what you’d expect.
plain
33.8%
36.8%
20%40%60%
A −2.9% difference in third-down conversion rate with Duane Thomas Jr. vs without Duane Thomas Jr. is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Duane Thomas Jr.without Duane Thomas Jr.
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26, 2024 | vs BYU | L | 20.0% | 44.1% | |
| Nov 2, 2024 | vs Arizona | W | 66.7% | 39.1% | |
| Nov 9, 2024 | @ Arizona State | L | 46.2% | 41.2% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ West Virginia | L | 33.3% | 45.0% | |
| Nov 29, 2024 | vs Utah | L | 33.3% | 34.1% | |
| Aug 28, 2025 | vs Jacksonville State | W | 46.7% | 36.1% | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vsNNorth Carolina A&T | W | 45.5% | — | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs North Carolina | W | 38.5% | 37.8% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ Kansas State | L | 23.1% | 34.6% | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vs Kansas | L | 25.0% | 39.3% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Cincinnati | L | 38.9% | 36.5% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vsWest Virginia | W | 31.3% | 35.0% | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @ Baylor | L | 9.1% | 39.7% | |
| Nov 7, 2025 | vs Houston | L | 33.3% | 36.1% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ Texas Tech | L | 30.8% | 28.8% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Oklahoma State | W | 35.7% | 38.2% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @BYU | L | 46.2% | 28.1% | |
| Sep 3, 2026 | vsBBethune-Cookman | W | 62.5% | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Pittsburgh | L | 30.8% | 36.7% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Georgia State | W | 25.0% | 36.1% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs TCU | W | 30.0% | 34.9% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @Houston | L | 28.6% | 38.1% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @Oklahoma State | L | 43.8% | 36.5% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vsBYU | W | 56.3% | 34.9% | |
| Oct 30, 2026 | vsBaylor | L | 13.3% | 38.4% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.7% in 2025, plus 1.4% in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 56% in 2025, 40% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- North Carolina A&T, Bethune-Cookman have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 15 of these 20 games; in the other 5 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.
- 5 games in 2024 are neither with Duane Thomas Jr. nor without Duane Thomas Jr.: Duane Thomas Jr. had no game for the team that season, and sit out.