UCF’s rushing yards with Keyone Jenkins and without Keyone Jenkins
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, UCF was 2.9 yards over with Keyone Jenkins and 102.3 yards under without Keyone Jenkins in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 139.5 and 190.0, a difference of 50.5. All 3 ranked opponents were with Keyone Jenkins. All 5 conference games were with Keyone Jenkins. All 4 second-half games were with Keyone Jenkins.
Keyone Jenkins, quarterback: 1,181 passing yards, 180 pass attempts and 122 completions in 8 games this season, 5% of UCF’s rushing yards in those games.
2 games without Keyone Jenkins is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
rushing yards a game over expected
A −50.5 difference in rushing yards with Keyone Jenkins vs without Keyone Jenkins is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | rushing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 3, 2026 | vsBBethune-Cookman | W | 360 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Pittsburgh | L | 20 | 122.3 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Georgia State | W | 304 | 153.1 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs TCU | W | 106 | 134.7 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Houston | L | 73 | 115.0 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Oklahoma State | L | 110 | 148.5 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs BYU | W | 178 | 120.4 | |
| Oct 30, 2026 | vs Baylor | L | 66 | 148.1 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 8.0 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 60% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Bethune-Cookman has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 6 of these 8 games; in the other 2 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.