UCF’s points with Keyone Jenkins and without Keyone Jenkins
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, UCF was 2.3 points over with Keyone Jenkins and 19.6 points under without Keyone Jenkins in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 26.3 and 40.0, a difference of 13.7. All 3 ranked opponents were with Keyone Jenkins. All 5 conference games were with Keyone Jenkins. All 4 second-half games were with Keyone Jenkins.
Keyone Jenkins, quarterback: 1,181 passing yards, 180 pass attempts and 122 completions in 8 games this season.
2 games without Keyone Jenkins is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points a game over expected
with Keyone Jenkins
+2.3
without Keyone Jenkins
−19.6
020
plain
26.3
40.0
204060
A −13.7 difference in points with Keyone Jenkins vs without Keyone Jenkins is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Keyone Jenkinswithout Keyone Jenkins
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 3, 2026 | vsBBethune-Cookman | W | 73 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Pittsburgh | L | 7 | 26.6 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Georgia State | W | 44 | 32.9 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs TCU | W | 21 | 18.2 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Houston | L | 17 | 20.1 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Oklahoma State | L | 28 | 28.5 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs BYU | W | 39 | 18.1 | |
| Oct 30, 2026 | vs Baylor | L | 9 | 26.8 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.9 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 66% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Bethune-Cookman has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 6 of these 8 games; in the other 2 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.