UCF’s points with Alonza Barnett III and since Alonza Barnett III’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, UCF was 19.5 points under with Alonza Barnett III and 2.2 points over since Alonza Barnett III’s last game over its last 25 games, 1 game against 6. The plain averages are 40.0 and 26.3, a difference of 13.7. All 3 ranked opponents were since Alonza Barnett III’s last game. All 5 conference games were since Alonza Barnett III’s last game.
Alonza Barnett III, quarterback: 477 passing yards, 65 pass attempts and 39 completions in 3 of those 25 games.
2 games with Alonza Barnett III is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points a game over expected
A +13.7 difference in points with Alonza Barnett III vs since Alonza Barnett III’s last game is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26, 2024 | vs BYU | L | 24 | 25.2 | |
| Nov 2, 2024 | vs Arizona | W | 56 | 31.3 | |
| Nov 9, 2024 | @ Arizona State | L | 31 | 23.3 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ West Virginia | L | 21 | 33.0 | |
| Nov 29, 2024 | vs Utah | L | 14 | 27.5 | |
| Aug 28, 2025 | vs Jacksonville State | W | 17 | 30.3 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vsNNorth Carolina A&T | W | 68 | — | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs North Carolina | W | 34 | 21.6 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ Kansas State | L | 20 | 18.0 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vs Kansas | L | 20 | 24.0 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Cincinnati | L | 11 | 22.0 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vsWest Virginia | W | 45 | 22.1 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @ Baylor | L | 3 | 29.4 | |
| Nov 7, 2025 | vs Houston | L | 27 | 22.2 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ Texas Tech | L | 9 | 7.3 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Oklahoma State | W | 17 | 29.2 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @BYU | L | 21 | 11.7 | |
| Sep 3, 2026 | vsBBethune-Cookman | W | 73 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Pittsburgh | L | 7 | 26.5 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Georgia State | W | 44 | 32.9 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs TCU | W | 21 | 18.1 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @Houston | L | 17 | 20.1 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @Oklahoma State | L | 28 | 28.5 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vsBYU | W | 39 | 18.1 | |
| Oct 30, 2026 | vsBaylor | L | 9 | 26.8 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.8 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 66% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Bethune-Cookman has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 6 of these 8 games; in the other 2 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Alonza Barnett III nor since Alonza Barnett III’s last game: Alonza Barnett III had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.