UCF’s points of margin with RJ Jackson Jr. and without RJ Jackson Jr.
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, UCF was 2.5 points over with RJ Jackson Jr. and 5.6 points under without RJ Jackson Jr. in 2026, 4 games against 3. The plain averages are -0.5 and 9.5, a difference of 10.0.
RJ Jackson Jr., defender: 2 games this season.
points of margin a game over expected
with RJ Jackson Jr.
+2.5
without RJ Jackson Jr.
−5.6
-200
A +8.0 difference in points of margin over expected with RJ Jackson Jr. vs without RJ Jackson Jr. is about what you’d expect.
plain
-0.5
9.5
050
A −10.0 difference in points of margin with RJ Jackson Jr. vs without RJ Jackson Jr. is about what you’d expect.
The games
with RJ Jackson Jr.without RJ Jackson Jr.
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 3, 2026 | vsBBethune-Cookman | W | 67 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Pittsburgh | L | -5 | -5.0 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Georgia State | W | 14 | 13.2 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs TCU | W | 8 | -1.8 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Houston | L | -10 | -14.0 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Oklahoma State | L | -14 | -9.4 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs BYU | W | 8 | -8.6 | |
| Oct 30, 2026 | vs Baylor | L | -32 | 1.3 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Bethune-Cookman has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 6 of these 8 games; in the other 2 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.