UCF’s points of margin with Keyone Jenkins and without Keyone Jenkins
, ,
Against what the season’s ratings expected, UCF was 1.1 points under with Keyone Jenkins and 0.1 points over without Keyone Jenkins over its last 25 games, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are -4.3 and 31.0, a difference of 35.3. All 3 ranked opponents were with Keyone Jenkins. All 5 conference games were with Keyone Jenkins.
Keyone Jenkins, quarterback: 1,181 passing yards, 180 pass attempts and 122 completions in 8 of those 25 games.
2 games without Keyone Jenkins is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
A −35.3 difference in points of margin with Keyone Jenkins vs without Keyone Jenkins is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Keyone Jenkins and it comes up 18 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26, 2024 | vs BYU | L | -13 | -4.7 | |
| Nov 2, 2024 | vs Arizona | W | 44 | 7.6 | |
| Nov 9, 2024 | @ Arizona State | L | -4 | -12.5 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ West Virginia | L | -10 | 4.2 | |
| Nov 29, 2024 | vs Utah | L | -14 | 7.2 | |
| Aug 28, 2025 | vs Jacksonville State | W | 7 | 13.1 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vsNNorth Carolina A&T | W | 61 | — | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs North Carolina | W | 25 | 4.7 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ Kansas State | L | -14 | -12.6 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vs Kansas | L | -7 | -2.6 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Cincinnati | L | -9 | -7.4 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vsWest Virginia | W | 32 | -0.3 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @ Baylor | L | -27 | -2.8 | |
| Nov 7, 2025 | vs Houston | L | -3 | -4.4 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ Texas Tech | L | -39 | -29.4 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Oklahoma State | W | 3 | 16.1 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @BYU | L | -20 | -19.9 | |
| Sep 3, 2026 | vsBBethune-Cookman | W | 67 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Pittsburgh | L | -5 | -5.1 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Georgia State | W | 14 | 13.2 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs TCU | W | 8 | -1.8 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @Houston | L | -10 | -14.0 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @Oklahoma State | L | -14 | -9.4 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vsBYU | W | 8 | -8.7 | |
| Oct 30, 2026 | vsBaylor | L | -32 | 1.3 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Bethune-Cookman has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 6 of these 8 games; in the other 2 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Keyone Jenkins nor without Keyone Jenkins: Keyone Jenkins had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.