UCF’s points of margin with Alonza Barnett III and since Alonza Barnett III’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, UCF was 0.1 points over with Alonza Barnett III and 1.1 points under since Alonza Barnett III’s last game in 2026, 1 game against 6. The plain averages are 31.0 and -4.3, a difference of 35.3. All 3 ranked opponents were since Alonza Barnett III’s last game. All 5 conference games were since Alonza Barnett III’s last game. All 4 second-half games were since Alonza Barnett III’s last game.
Alonza Barnett III, quarterback: 477 passing yards, 65 pass attempts and 39 completions in 3 games this season.
2 games with Alonza Barnett III is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
A +35.3 difference in points of margin with Alonza Barnett III vs since Alonza Barnett III’s last game is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Alonza Barnett III and it comes up 17 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 3, 2026 | vsBBethune-Cookman | W | 67 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Pittsburgh | L | -5 | -5.1 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Georgia State | W | 14 | 13.2 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs TCU | W | 8 | -1.8 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Houston | L | -10 | -14.0 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Oklahoma State | L | -14 | -9.4 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs BYU | W | 8 | -8.7 | |
| Oct 30, 2026 | vs Baylor | L | -32 | 1.3 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Bethune-Cookman has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 6 of these 8 games; in the other 2 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.