UCF’s points allowed with Taevion Swint and since Taevion Swint’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, UCF was 3.3 points under with Taevion Swint and 10.5 points over since Taevion Swint’s last game over its last 25 games, 5 games against 2. The plain averages are 21.7 and 36.0, a difference of 14.3. All 3 away games were with Taevion Swint. All 3 nonconference games were with Taevion Swint.
Taevion Swint, running back: 162 rushing yards, 32 carries and 4 receptions in 6 of those 25 games.
2 games since Taevion Swint’s last game is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points allowed a game over expected
A −13.8 difference in points allowed over expected with Taevion Swint vs since Taevion Swint’s last game is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Taevion Swint and it comes up 17 times in 100.
A −14.3 difference in points allowed with Taevion Swint vs since Taevion Swint’s last game is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points allowed | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26, 2024 | vs BYU | L | 37 | 29.4 | |
| Nov 2, 2024 | vs Arizona | W | 12 | 24.6 | |
| Nov 9, 2024 | @ Arizona State | L | 35 | 34.3 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ West Virginia | L | 31 | 29.3 | |
| Nov 29, 2024 | vs Utah | L | 28 | 21.2 | |
| Aug 28, 2025 | vs Jacksonville State | W | 10 | 18.5 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vsNNorth Carolina A&T | W | 7 | — | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs North Carolina | W | 9 | 17.4 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ Kansas State | L | 34 | 29.3 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vs Kansas | L | 27 | 26.3 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Cincinnati | L | 20 | 28.7 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vsWest Virginia | W | 13 | 22.4 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @ Baylor | L | 30 | 31.9 | |
| Nov 7, 2025 | vs Houston | L | 30 | 26.2 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ Texas Tech | L | 48 | 33.8 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Oklahoma State | W | 14 | 14.7 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @BYU | L | 41 | 29.7 | |
| Sep 3, 2026 | vsBBethune-Cookman | W | 6 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Pittsburgh | L | 12 | 30.8 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Georgia State | W | 30 | 21.8 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs TCU | W | 13 | 19.6 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @Houston | L | 27 | 31.8 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @Oklahoma State | L | 42 | 36.4 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vsBYU | W | 31 | 25.3 | |
| Oct 30, 2026 | vsBaylor | L | 41 | 25.6 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 1.9 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 66% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Bethune-Cookman has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 6 of these 8 games; in the other 2 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Taevion Swint nor since Taevion Swint’s last game: Taevion Swint had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.