UCF’s carries with Taevion Swint and since Taevion Swint’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, UCF was 1.9 carries under with Taevion Swint and 1.2 carries over since Taevion Swint’s last game in 2026, 5 games against 2. The plain averages are 32.5 and 35.0, a difference of 2.5. All 3 away games were with Taevion Swint. All 3 nonconference games were with Taevion Swint. All 4 first-half games were with Taevion Swint.
Taevion Swint, running back: 162 rushing yards, 32 carries and 4 receptions in 6 games this season, 16% of UCF’s carries in those games.
2 games since Taevion Swint’s last game is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
A −3.1 difference in carries over expected with Taevion Swint vs since Taevion Swint’s last game is about what you’d expect.
A −2.5 difference in carries with Taevion Swint vs since Taevion Swint’s last game is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 3, 2026 | vsBBethune-Cookman | W | 38 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Pittsburgh | L | 22 | 33.8 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Georgia State | W | 40 | 34.5 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs TCU | W | 33 | 33.2 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Houston | L | 21 | 31.2 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Oklahoma State | L | 41 | 34.0 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs BYU | W | 40 | 31.4 | |
| Oct 30, 2026 | vs Baylor | L | 30 | 36.2 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Bethune-Cookman has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 6 of these 8 games; in the other 2 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.