Tulsa’s points allowed in a conference game and in a nonconference game
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Through Tulsa’s game on Nov 29, 2025.
Against what the season’s ratings expected, Tulsa was 7.1 points over in a conference game and 10.4 points under in a nonconference game over its last 25 games, 17 games against 6. The plain averages are 41.7 and 21.9, a difference of 19.8. Both opponents outside the major colleges were in a nonconference game.
Tulsa’s +17.4 in a conference game vs in a nonconference game over expected ranks 2nd of the 130 teams with 4 games on each side over their last 25 games through Nov 29, 2025.
points allowed a game over expected
A +17.4 difference in points allowed over expected in a conference game vs in a nonconference game is rare: shuffle which games were in a conference game and it comes up less than once in 100.
A +19.8 difference in points allowed in a conference game vs in a nonconference game is rare: shuffle which games were in a conference game and it comes up less than once in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points allowed | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 25, 2023 | @ East Carolina | W | 27 | 26.7 | |
| Aug 29, 2024 | vs Northwestern State | W | 28 | — | |
| Sep 7, 2024 | @ Arkansas State | L | 28 | 42.6 | |
| Sep 14, 2024 | vs Oklahoma State | L | 45 | 42.2 | |
| Sep 21, 2024 | @ Louisiana Tech | W | 20 | 36.2 | |
| Sep 28, 2024 | @ North Texas | L | 52 | 45.1 | |
| Oct 5, 2024 | vs Army | L | 49 | 39.5 | |
| Oct 19, 2024 | @ Temple | L | 20 | 37.3 | |
| Oct 26, 2024 | vs UTSA | W | 45 | 41.8 | |
| Nov 2, 2024 | @ UAB | L | 59 | 37.9 | |
| Nov 14, 2024 | vsEast Carolina | L | 38 | 40.8 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ South Florida | L | 63 | 41.1 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Florida Atlantic | L | 63 | 31.2 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vsAAbilene Christian | W | 7 | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ New Mexico State | L | 21 | 26.4 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Navy | L | 42 | 30.3 | |
| Sep 19, 2025 | @Oklahoma State | W | 12 | 28.7 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs Tulane | L | 31 | 31.3 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Memphis | L | 45 | 34.1 | |
| Oct 16, 2025 | @East Carolina | L | 41 | 35.2 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vsTemple | L | 38 | 28.7 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @Florida Atlantic | L | 40 | 31.9 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs Oregon State | W | 14 | 26.1 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @Army | W | 25 | 29.8 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsUAB | L | 31 | 26.2 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 1.2 in 2023, minus 1.5 in 2024, minus 1.5 in 2025 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 76% in 2023, 75% in 2024, 78% in 2025 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Northwestern State, Abilene Christian have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.