Tulsa’s points allowed in a conference game and in a nonconference game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Tulsa was 8.8 points over in a conference game and 9.8 points under in a nonconference game over its last 25 games, 17 games against 6. The plain averages are 40.9 and 14.4, a difference of 26.5. Both opponents outside the major colleges were in a nonconference game. All 4 of Kevin Wilson’s games were in a conference game.
Tulsa’s +18.6 in a conference game vs in a nonconference game over expected ranks 1st of the 134 teams with 4 games on each side over their last 25 games.
points allowed a game over expected
A +18.6 difference in points allowed over expected in a conference game vs in a nonconference game is rare: shuffle which games were in a conference game and it comes up less than once in 100.
A +26.5 difference in points allowed in a conference game vs in a nonconference game is rare: shuffle which games were in a conference game and it comes up less than once in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points allowed | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26, 2024 | vs UTSA | W | 45 | 41.8 | |
| Nov 2, 2024 | @ UAB | L | 59 | 37.9 | |
| Nov 14, 2024 | vs East Carolina | L | 38 | 40.8 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ South Florida | L | 63 | 41.1 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Florida Atlantic | L | 63 | 31.2 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vsAAbilene Christian | W | 7 | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ New Mexico State | L | 21 | 26.4 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Navy | L | 42 | 30.3 | |
| Sep 19, 2025 | @ Oklahoma State | W | 12 | 28.7 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs Tulane | L | 31 | 31.3 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Memphis | L | 45 | 34.1 | |
| Oct 16, 2025 | @East Carolina | L | 41 | 35.2 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs Temple | L | 38 | 28.7 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @Florida Atlantic | L | 40 | 31.9 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs Oregon State | W | 14 | 26.1 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Army | W | 25 | 29.8 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsUAB | L | 31 | 26.2 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsOklahoma State | W | 10 | 43.9 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Sam Houston | W | 17 | 15.2 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsEEast Texas A&M | W | 0 | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Arkansas | L | 34 | 26.6 | |
| Oct 1, 2026 | vs North Texas | L | 45 | 31.4 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @Navy | L | 34 | 24.3 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Rice | W | 17 | 25.3 | |
| Oct 23, 2026 | vsArmy | L | 38 | 24.6 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 1.5 in 2024, minus 1.5 in 2025, minus 1.9 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 75% in 2024, 78% in 2025, 66% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Abilene Christian, East Texas A&M have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.