Troy’s third-down conversion rate with Tucker Kilcrease and without Tucker Kilcrease
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Troy was 2.7 percentage points under with Tucker Kilcrease and 2.3 percentage points over without Tucker Kilcrease over its last 25 games, 9 games against 14. The plain averages are 36.0% and 40.4%, a difference of 4.5%. All 3 ranked opponents were without Tucker Kilcrease. Both opponents outside the major colleges were without Tucker Kilcrease.
Tucker Kilcrease, quarterback: 1,789 passing yards, 268 pass attempts and 153 completions in 15 of those 25 games.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A −5.0% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Tucker Kilcrease vs without Tucker Kilcrease is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Tucker Kilcrease and it comes up 12 times in 100.
A −4.5% difference in third-down conversion rate with Tucker Kilcrease vs without Tucker Kilcrease is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2024 | @ Georgia Southern | W | 78.6% | 42.9% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Louisiana | L | 40.0% | 45.4% | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Southern Miss | W | 56.3% | 44.5% | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vsNNicholls | W | 60.0% | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Clemson | L | 38.5% | 28.7% | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Memphis | L | 26.7% | 37.9% | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ Buffalo | W | 47.6% | 35.2% | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vs South Alabama | W | 33.3% | 38.3% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Texas State | W | 35.7% | 39.8% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ Louisiana Monroe | W | 38.5% | 41.0% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vsLouisiana | W | 69.2% | 37.7% | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs Arkansas State | L | 29.4% | 41.9% | |
| Nov 13, 2025 | @ Old Dominion | L | 15.4% | 34.9% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Georgia State | W | 55.0% | 41.3% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @Southern Miss | W | 46.7% | 40.8% | |
| Dec 5, 2025 | @ James Madison | L | 22.2% | 32.5% | |
| Dec 16, 2025 | vs Jacksonville State (neutral) | L | 16.7% | 39.3% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Sam Houston | W | 40.0% | 36.4% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsAAlabama State | W | 21.4% | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Missouri | L | 41.2% | 33.0% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Utah State | L | 30.8% | 37.0% | |
| Oct 6, 2026 | vsSouthern Miss | W | 57.1% | 37.3% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @Louisiana | L | 25.0% | 36.9% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vsLouisiana Monroe | L | 18.8% | 42.1% | |
| Oct 29, 2026 | @James Madison | W | 26.7% | 37.3% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6% in 2024, plus 0.7% in 2025, plus 1.4% in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 50% in 2024, 56% in 2025, 40% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Nicholls, Alabama State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 22 of these 25 games; in the other 3 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.