Troy’s third-down conversion rate with Tucker Kilcrease and without Tucker Kilcrease
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Troy was 10.6 percentage points under with Tucker Kilcrease and 1.6 percentage points under without Tucker Kilcrease in 2026, 1 game against 6. The plain averages are 26.7% and 33.5%, a difference of 6.8%. All 4 home games were without Tucker Kilcrease. All 5 day games were without Tucker Kilcrease. All 4 nonconference games were without Tucker Kilcrease.
Tucker Kilcrease, quarterback: 252 passing yards, 46 pass attempts and 23 completions in 4 games this season.
One game with Tucker Kilcrease is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Tucker Kilcrease
−10.6%
without Tucker Kilcrease
−1.6%
-20%0%
plain
26.7%
33.5%
20%30%40%50%
The games
with Tucker Kilcreasewithout Tucker Kilcrease
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Sam Houston | W | 40.0% | 36.4% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsAAlabama State | W | 21.4% | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Missouri | L | 41.2% | 32.9% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Utah State | L | 30.8% | 36.9% | |
| Oct 6, 2026 | vs Southern Miss | W | 57.1% | 37.3% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Louisiana | L | 25.0% | 36.8% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Louisiana Monroe | L | 18.8% | 42.2% | |
| Oct 29, 2026 | @ James Madison | W | 26.7% | 37.3% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- Alabama State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.