Troy’s third-down conversion rate with Goose Crowder and since Goose Crowder’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Troy was 1.7 percentage points under with Goose Crowder and 10.7 percentage points under since Goose Crowder’s last game in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 33.5% and 26.7%, a difference of 6.8%. All 4 home games were with Goose Crowder. All 5 day games were with Goose Crowder. All 4 nonconference games were with Goose Crowder.
Goose Crowder, quarterback: 1,162 passing yards, 183 pass attempts and 102 completions in 7 games this season.
One game since Goose Crowder’s last game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Goose Crowder
−1.7%
since Goose Crowder’s last game
−10.7%
-20%0%
plain
33.5%
26.7%
20%30%40%50%
The games
with Goose Crowdersince Goose Crowder’s last game
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Sam Houston | W | 40.0% | 36.4% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsAAlabama State | W | 21.4% | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Missouri | L | 41.2% | 33.0% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Utah State | L | 30.8% | 37.0% | |
| Oct 6, 2026 | vs Southern Miss | W | 57.1% | 37.3% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Louisiana | L | 25.0% | 36.9% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Louisiana Monroe | L | 18.8% | 42.1% | |
| Oct 29, 2026 | @ James Madison | W | 26.7% | 37.3% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- Alabama State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.